Sunday, December 5th 2010, 17:32
Cultural diversification
Many immigrant nations struggle with the choice between assimilation and multiculturalism. There is no absolute (correct) ideology with respect to how to deal with these immigrants, just which one is optimal. If your country needs to build up economic and military strength quickly you want assimilation, best served with a big scoop of nationalism. If, however, a country is not facing significant external threats and depends on the creative forces of its citizens for its economy, you want multiculturalism.
A good analogy is managing your investment portfolio. You either focus your money on a certain type of investments or you spread it around to different areas. In the short run, countries with one dominant culture, either inbred or assimilated, will race ahead as her citizens work tirelessly for the nation. Multi-cultural countries, on the other hand, tend to waste a lot of resources fighting amongst themselves as they fail to take advantage of opportunities that present themselves. The problem with monoculture societies, however, is that if they make a very wrong decision, they cannot stop moving and must instead crash and burn before they wake up and realise what is happening. Inherently, multicultural countries do not face these historical dangers. Instead, they face a more obvious danger of being militarily subjugated or economically annexed by their more mono-cultured or nationalistic neighbours. The conqueres might then crash and burn but your own tolerant society, or its citizens, would not be around anymore to see it happen.
Observing what existing immigrant nations actually do, one notices that not all of them pursue what makes the most sense. The United States is powerful and does not face external threats, but still preaches the American life to all her immigrants. Russia is multicultural but faces the combined economic might of Western Europe, so their assimilation policies (encouraged or forced) towards her Central Asian peoples make sense. Australia faces the numerous and resource hungry nations of Indonesia and Japan but is still wasting time bickering about several hundred lost jobs for nationwide projects. Canada is placed right next to the United States and thinks they will be friends forever, at least they back their multiculturalism with strong beliefs of liberalism and massive quantities of hidden bio-chemical weapons on the US-Canada border.
Then there are countries that, I think, are at their critical years where they need to determine which type of cultural policy they pursue. I am thinking of South Africa, China and Turkey, if they are not already overwhelmed with more pressing, short-term problems.
Wednesday, July 14th 2010, 23:08
Football ethics and WC2014 predictions
WC2010 finals was a disappointment, not because of the game itself, but rather the great numbers of writers claiming that the Netherlands played in an unethical manner. I think it is nonsense, and baseless.
Football, just like any other team sports, is won by a combination of fitness, technique and tactics. The first two are obvious so I will focus on the third. Put simply, tactics is the optimal use the fitness and technique your team has, within the rules of the game. But crime, defined as intentional breaking of the rules, can only be prevented if the punishment is greater than the gains from crime. This is the biggest problem with football, FIFA in particular, because it is the rules and referees that are responsible for defining how a game is played, not the players themselves. Best example: "attempts to deceive the referee by feigning injury or pretending to have been fouled" is, again, just a yellow card? How often are they caught, against what potential rewards are we talking here? I am no mathematician, but I know that even with 2 red cards - 10 men this game, 10 men next game - will still gives a positive expected value because they are so hard to catch! The Uruguay handball incident is similarly laughable: a red card and a penalty? Wouldn't it be easier to just give them 2 penalties instead, one compensatory and the other punitive, to make sure the expected payoff is negative? It's more harsh than just giving the goal and more entertaining to watch also (and if you miss both, you deserve to lose).
In a similar vein, rough tackles are grossly mispriced. If stopping a game-ending attacker with a rough tackle only warrants a yellow card, then it is absolutely the CIVIC DUTY of any football team representing the honour of their country to keep count of the players that are not yet booked with a yellow card, and to take turns doing it. Anything else is unpatriotic or even treason. What about sportsmanship, you ask? Simulation, diving, acting, doping and shouting at referees is unsportsmanlike. A physical approach to our favourite contact sport, one that shares the same ancestry as rugby, Aussie footy and American football, is just about countering superior technique with superior fitness, a common and accepted tactic in many other contact sports anyway. It's also the reason why center-backs are usually tall - what's the point of getting big players to play those positions if pushing and shoving are not allowed? And even if you still think what the Dutch did was despicable, then you must say the same for the Chilians and Swiss, both of which were also violent against the Spanish, but the former was left alone and the latter was even praised as heroic underdogs. If journalism can get even more biased then it becomes Fox News. Besides, don't forget that of the 14 yellow cards, 5 of them belonged to the much better team. Two wrongs don't make a half right.
Having established my POV with self-righteous pundits, I now make another prediction that is likely to upset a lot of people, this time about WC2014 in Brazil. Looking at WC2006 and WC2010, it seems that countries with quality youth leagues, professional coaches and a strong team ethos (except England; they just Suck) will likely dominate football from the 21st century onwards. It's not about discovering 23 genius players, it's about an arms race of sports science and resource-intensive training programs, a competition that the Europeans will inevitably beat the South Americans at. In fact, I dare say that the semi-finals in WC2014 will be all-European. Even Brazil, with host-nation advantage, a combination that not many teams would want to face, will probably not make it unless they don't face one of those great European football powers in quarter-finals.
Tuesday, June 1st 2010, 20:20
願望與欲望
秋天是天氣轉涼的時候，也是提醒倉生嚴冬將至，往後的幾個月日子要過的堅強一點。當然，這個南方島國的氣候和暖，最冷的地方也只有幾個星期會下雪，但是對弱小的人類來說已經是大衣和暖爐出動的時候。對我來說，近來的幾個月也是我人生的多事之秋，發生了很多事情，有得有失，有被泡滅的計劃，也有成真的願望。須然這種大起大落的階段我以前都經歷過，所以這一次我還能保持冷靜，但是最令人費解的是，為甚麼願望成真了，我感受到的不是興高採烈的歡愉，而是一種失落與空虛，一種晚上被一陣秋風吹來一樣的心寒。
你的理智替你定下來的目標是願望，從心底裡想得到的是欲望，這兩者是可以不同，甚至是完全互相抵觸的。當被問到你的人生想要甚麼的時候，我們總是會道出自己的願望而不是欲望。這不是撒謊，是因為願望是有兩部分的，第一個是你的目標，第二個是將你的欲望變成你的願望，如果兩者不能同時達到的話，願望就會變得沒有意義。就像當你的朋友還忙著替你高興的時候，你的心裡也真的享受著他們的喜悅，但是在歡笑背後也有一種隱隱的心酸，因為你從來沒有跟別人說的欲望就從始要永遠埋在心底裡。要麼是你死的一天，或者是將它忘掉，還是你的願望的第二份都成真，否則你的空虛就一輩子陪著你。
Sunday, April 18th 2010, 21:00
alone in darkness
dreaming of an empty dream
blank and colourless
Monday, April 5th 2010, 21:33
Best advice I ever got playing online Monopoly: "Take your time with trades". I think I finally understand what it means.
At the start everyone is on the same page, but soon some players will be in a better position than others. The whole point of the game is to get your winning monopoly, so trading is where the game is. Trading can be a complicated process, since the value of properties are relative and include strategic considerations. However, it is usually the leading players that sit back, waiting for the ones behind to initiate trades before small rents attrition them to a slow death. But if they are too eager to make offers, they would end up with one-sided deals and then they will just lose faster.
So the key is to take as much time as one can afford and appear calm, so that nobody is quite certain who is ahead. That way, even when you are behind, trades would not be so biased, and you might have a winning chance after the deal.
I know my time is running out but that is no excuse for the bad trade I just made. I knew it was risky; the signals were loud and clear, the historical data all pointing to the same conclusion, the warning signs went up everywhere. I foolishly followed my heart rather than my head, stupidly trusting an agreement that cannot be enforced. Worse, my bridges are brunt and my escape routes are blocked, while the other player keeps growing stronger still.
There's no-one to blame but myself for taking a bad deal in the first place, I should have taken my time. Some people follow their heart but my friends always tell me my mind is a lot sharper than my instincts. Maybe I should start taking their advice.
Friday, February 19th 2010, 16:39
The Sun rises every day. The seasons repeat themselves through the months. People repeat the same mistakes over the years.
Some mistakes can be traumatic, by which I mean the kind that violently rips you apart until your body, your sanity and your spirit until it becomes pieces of tattered rags, lying in a dusty pile under the desert skies. It doesn't even matter where the loose thread dangles out, once it gets caught by something the whole fabric will eventually be torn apart. It's especially bad when the pain starts from inside your soul and works its way out, causing so much collateral damage along the way that the psychological pain then also takes on a physical aspect. Consider yourself lucky if you actually live through one of these; I would not wish the same thing to anyone.
The worst part is that nothing can guarantee you don't make the same mistake again. You could try to walk away from things that induce stupid behavior, but it's something fundamental about yourself that you can't change, then how do you run away from yourself?
Even after all those years, I could still remember so many little details that I could have sworn it just happened yesterday. Primal feelings of shock and anger comes first, which then gives way to more chilling thoughts of hopelessness, shame and despair. You become painfully aware of your own weakness and a sense of worthlessness sinks in when you stop being hated and start being despised, pitied or even ignored. You try to accept your loss and get on with your life. Then, you realise the physical damage starts to kick in as well when your stomach begins to reject solid food and you get random chest pains throughout the day. Exhausted, you try to sleep it off, only to find yourself neither asleep or awake when your brain decides to throw itself down a bottomless pit so that you will wake up each morning in a new universe. Except, of course, it's a parallel universe.
The difference this time is that I have experienced it before and can see it coming, which at least makes it different if not any better. It's like when the sharp pain from being hit behind your back is now replaced with a slow, grinding sound of a metal edge scratching against a glass surface that echos in your head continuously during every waking moment - until you get hit in the face anyway. All I am wishing for now is for the "anticipation" to end sooner so the real thing can begin. Alas, this time it's not me that decides.
Tuesday, January 26th 2010, 11:52
Free market, free speech and free religion: a human perspective
Economists have long believed in the power of free markets in maximising the wealth of a country. At the same time, they realise that if a generally agreed set of rules will be detrimental to an individual or an institution, they will refuse to cooperate, which is the basis of political economics. Given these two "obvious facts", it is difficult to understand why free market advocates, such as academics or government-paid hypocrites posing as NGO's, put so little effort into modifying their ideological vision into a less ideal application that will gain more support. Instead, they look for quick fixes. Transition economies facing unemployment? Just share the wealth through handouts! Yes - just give unemployed parents in their mid-forties money and booze, sure that will work. Free trade putting African farmers out of work? We will give you aid, and then you can buy our machine-harvested crops at discount prices! If you would just pause for a few moments and walk a mile in someone else's shoes, the pure lunacy of these suggestions become obvious. What, you want to sell cabbages to Europe? Sorry, we only need organic vegetables...
It gets worse when people do not even bother with half-baked solutions and simply try to claim moral high ground with a lot of screeching noise. When they run into resistance from other countries, they start waving the flag of free speech. Sometimes it is the (oppressive) dictatorship shutting foreigners out and their own people in, in which case you do have to take action. Or, people may just become furious when you keep knocking on their door preaching your free-market gospels even after I put a *DND* sign in the front lawn. Now think about the way governments are shutting down www(dot)youtube(dot)com because you keep telling people to rise up against their government. Forget about freedom, democracy or even destabilising the region for strategic purposes; those things are too complicated for my simple mind. What I see is simply someone disconnecting their telephone from their homes because they keep receiving sales calls from half-way across the world in the middle of their night (due to time difference :-P) while the family is trying to sleep. Or, if you insist on conspiracy theories, most countries simply do not have the technology, resources or experience in fighting a propaganda war against you.
You can apply the same way of thinking to the recent issues of internet censorship. Many people are horrified when there are suggestions of a "white list", where all websites not from the list will be banned. The consensus is that there this is a great evil and must be fought against at every opportunity, but unless you also seek to understand before you judge, you may never succeed. For me, it reminds me of a certain professor from my university who keeps a white-list of email addresses, blocking out the rest. He is a helpful person but he just does not have the time, energy or storage space to deal with so many strangers! Consequently, the implication of this premise is that once a country feels their people can throw a counter-influence strong enough over the internet, they will undoubtedly open it up immediately to reap its massive economic and soft-power benefits. They will do it, when it is in their best interest to do so, not because of any moral arguments you give them. Otherwise, refusing to play by your rules is the most rational decision. If your tanks beat my tanks, either my country surrenders or we start using suicide bombs.
Once you begin to appreciate the way countries, governments and ordinary citizens can get tired of fighting a war of ideas, you can begin to understand why some countries selectively restrict the influence of certain religions. Most religions have places of origin close to each other, which carries with it cultural baggage completely unrelated to its theology. In the context of free market and free speech, religious ideas such as free will, social responsibility and personal ethics can easily cause a lot of resentment. The influence is subtle, so it is especially easy to point a holier-than-thou finger once authorities start cracking down. Even if you believe in the divinity of human rights, then (if you believe in democracy) it is also the people's right to wield the tyranny of majority to restrict certain activities more than others. When people have lived in their countries for generations without certain activities, it is understandable if they want to keep it that way - they were there first! It gets worse when religious groups are clearly backed by funds from foreign governments. Logically, there must be a good reason why they get taxpayer's money, and that reason may or may not be beneficial for the other country.
In the social sciences, many things are closely interrelated, which makes life very difficult for a scholar. It is easy to forget that economics is also a social science when you are buried in mathematics - until you try to separate all the factors!
Monday, January 4th 2010, 19:12
You know what will happen.
A common phrase for the common person. Surely, everyone must have used this phrase before, or at least heard it used many times before.
"I know we will lose the basketball game tomorrow."
"I know I will pass the test if I study."
"I know Aunt Petunia will make us a great dinner if we show up at her place."
No one can actually tell the future with certainty. Most of the time we simply combine experience with simple reasoning to plan our lives, and we do so (hopefully) without messing up too often, as if we "know" for sure the result of the things we do, at least for most of the little things.
What if you really know what will happen?
Then you could do whatever you damn well please! Make a killing on the stock market, found your own religion as the greatest prophet in the world or just be the next Nostradamus but with surgical precision. It is hardly surprising, then, that oracles and seers were so highly sought after since antiquity; today's equivalent would be your fortune tellers, economists and the daily zodiac index texted to your mobile.
What if you know what will happen, but you cannot change it?
Then utter a curse to the heavens, hide in a corner, weep and despair.
"When mom comes back she will kill me for breaking the plates."
"4 days later, the convicted criminal will have his sentence determined."
"In a couple of weeks the cancer will kill the patient."
Strictly speaking we do not really know what will happen, but again experience and simple common sense is sufficient for anyone to be correct most of the time. If so, then the gift of foresight or any ability to see into the future to any degree of accuracy, is not really a gift after all. It merely removes the uncertainty about life, both the hope and the suspense, along with any other baggage that comes along with these aspects.
My friends tell me that foresight is one of my strengths, the ability to see things in the long run. They are trying to cheer me up during a difficult time of my life but I wished they stopped doing that. Say what you want, but one of the few things that most cultures in the world can agree on is that the course you take in life is mostly luck, with only a little bit of hard-work thrown in just to spice things up.
Take away hope, and then you can suddenly see all the horrors around you. Keep reminding me of what my common sense can see, and you are just rubbing salt in my wounds. I know what is about to happen, I can see it better than anyone else. Please, just leave me alone and count the days until I get hit with excruciating pain. Let me count the days until it happens, quietly, in peace.
Because those that know destiny cannot fight it.
Because I know what will happen. What must happen!